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30 Jan 2012 16:00:00 GMT
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It was never going to be a particularly jolly affair, but the mood at this year\'s annual meeting of the World'); document.write('Economic Forum was much gloomier than previous years. The IMF announced a substantial reduction to its 2012'); document.write('global economic forecast. No surprises about where it laid the blame - Europe. And the Brussels summit this week'); document.write('will address how to improve growth in the Eurozone. Confidence needs to be restored to achieve this, but for this'); document.write('to happen a realistic plan to end the crisis has to be in place. With continued wrangling about how best to achieve'); document.write('this, and Greece still a big worry, the delegates won\'t be feeling happy on their way home from Switzerland. At'); document.write('least there was some better news from the US where GDP growth picked up in the final quarter. While there are still'); document.write('risks ahead, this could be light at the end of a very long tunnel.
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23 Jan 2012 16:00:00 GMT
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Private investors in Greek government bonds shied away from an agreement to accept just half of the capital they'); document.write('lent in the first place and take a lower interest return on the remaining debt. The haircut alone was less of a trim'); document.write('than a short back and sides, but if Greece defaults these investors risk a scalping, in the form of losing all of their'); document.write('money. Whether Greece will qualify for the bailout it needs is now in question and has unsettled markets again,'); document.write('despite the better news from Ireland last week. The Irish government managed to bring its deficit down well below'); document.write('the level needed to qualify for its next bailout and looks to be in safer territory as a result - at least for now.
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16 Jan 2012 16:00:00 GMT
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The loss of France\'s cherished AAA rating was a particular blow to President Sarkozy in his election year. But'); document.write('there is more to worry about than a politician\'s feelings. Eight other Eurozone members, including Austria, Italy,'); document.write('Spain and Portugal, were also downgraded. Standard & Poor\'s decision froze out hopes that sentiment'); document.write('towards the Eurozone was beginning to thaw after the successful bond issues in Spain and Italy during the week.'); document.write('The decision to downgrade was blamed on European policymakers\' lack of action. This will certainly turn the heat'); document.write('up under them to find a swift resolution at the next summit. But worryingly, it also raises questions about the'); document.write('strength of the Eurozone\'s rescue fund as a smaller proportion of its resources will now be backed by AAA rated'); document.write('countries. And the bad news on Europe didn\'t end there. Greek debt restructuring talks collapsed, increasing the'); document.write('chances of a disorderly default. So, like the weather, the warm spell is over for now and it\'s another cold snap.
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09 Jan 2012 16:00:00 GMT
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The optimism at the start of 2011 was founded on strong global economic growth, but developments throughout'); document.write('the year mean that we enter 2012 in a much gloomier mood. Inflation, rising unemployment and much weaker than'); document.write('expected growth outturns in 2011 mean that meeting the austerity challenge is going to be painful in 2012. But'); document.write('there is some good news. The US economy seems to be dragging itself out of the doldrums and global'); document.write('manufacturing surveys have picked up. However, there is still lots of uncertainty, particularly where much of the'); document.write('outlook depends on global developments we can\'t control. It looks like 2012 will be a tussle between the hope of a'); document.write('continued recovery in the US and the fear of a worsening Eurozone crisis.
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19 Dec 2011 16:00:00 GMT
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The Christmas wish list will be particularly long and heart felt this year, for politicians, businesses and households'); document.write('alike. First placed will be an orderly resolution to the Eurozone debt crisis, and, since it\'s Christmas, some'); document.write('measures thrown-in to encourage long-term growth. The UK, like most of the western world, will also be asking for'); document.write('a little more economic growth next year. This will be tricky - Santa is good, but perhaps not that good. One'); document.write('brighter star is that UK inflation should ease in 2012, lifting the pressure on households\' purse strings a touch. The'); document.write('US has also finished the year with a festive-sized helping of economic growth, at least for these lean times. Yet'); document.write('they too will be asking for more, and again this will be hard to deliver, as the Fed explained last week. This is the'); document.write('last economics weekly until the New Year and I wish all my readers a happy and restful Christmas break.
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